The Mozambican government forecasts a dramatic acceleration in economic growth over the medium term, projecting gross domestic product to surge to 9.5% by 2029 as massive liquefied natural gas (LNG) megaprojects off the nation’s northern coast finally roar into full production.
According to the government’s newly approved Medium-Term Fiscal Scenario for 2027–2029, the economy is expected to expand at an average annual clip of 4.9% starting in 2027. However, that figure highlights a stark divergence within the domestic economy: while resource-fueled growth anchors the baseline, real GDP growth stripped of gas data is projected to limp along at just 2.1%.
The fiscal framework, approved during a Council of Ministers meeting in Maputo, will serve as the mathematical foundation for the upcoming 2027 Economic and Social Plan and State Budget (PESOE).
“The document constitutes the State’s primary instrument for macro-fiscal and budgetary programming,” said government spokesperson Inocêncio Impissa. He added that the strategy establishes “global expenditure ceilings for a three-year horizon” designed to reinforce “discipline, predictability, and transparency in public financial management.”
Mozambique’s economic fortunes are tied to the multi-billion-dollar development of the Rovuma Basin, home to some of the largest deepwater natural gas discoveries on the planet. The state’s soaring 2029 targets hinge on three key megaprojects off the coast of the volatile Cabo Delgado province. These include TotalEnergies SE’s heavily guarded onshore development and a massive, $30 billion ExxonMobil Corp. project that is currently awaiting a final investment decision.
Production will also be bolstered by Italy’s Eni SpA. The energy major has been exporting from its Coral Sul floating liquefied natural gas (FLNG) platform since 2022 and plans to double its output by 2028 via a second $7.2 billion floating facility, dubbed Coral Norte.
Maputo expects this incoming wave of dollar-denominated gas revenue to help tame consumer prices and mend the state’s balance sheet. The government projects inflation will cool from an estimated 8.7% in 2026 to 5.5% by 2029. Concurrently, public debt is forecast to steadily unwind, dropping from 72.2% of GDP in 2025 down to 67.1% by the end of the decade.
“From a fiscal standpoint, the approved scenario reflects the Government’s commitment to the gradual consolidation of public finances,” Impissa stated. To hit these targets, the administration intends to focus heavily on “the mobilization of internal revenues, the improvement of public expenditure efficiency, and the containment of structural pressures, with a particular emphasis on the wage bill and debt service charges.”
Despite the bullish long-term outlook, policymakers face a gauntlet of immediate vulnerabilities. The government acknowledged that its economic projections remain highly exposed to severe climate shocks, volatile global commodity markets, tight international financial conditions, and persistent security risks in its northern gas-producing regions.
